Via Jim Geraghty, Newt Gingrich, speaking on Sean Hannity's radio program yesterday, said that Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the nomination have dropped from 80% to 50% on account of her performance Tuesday night:

Her performance in that debate was so bad, on issues that matter so much, she may not be able to recover from it... This issue of Spitzer trying to give out driver's licenses to people at a time when your driver's license allows you to vote -- for her to trap herself into saying that creates a big wound...

The fact that she said she's basically sympathetic with Rangel's trillion-dollar-tax increase -- that's going to arouse some deep opposition. The huge Democratic tax increase allowed us to win in 1994 ... Then, I saw in a ticker on Fox News, when Sen. Edwards said nominating her would be 'a victory for a corruption machine' ... it brings back a lot of memories of the Chinese funding scandals of 1996 ... It takes her winning the nomination from an 80 percent likelihood to a 50 percent. It's even money. If she doesn't turn this around quick, I may have to call back in and take it even lower.

I didn't hear the show, so maybe those ellipses obscure some important points, but from Geraghty's transcript, it reads as if Gingrich, who Republicans and Democrats ignore at their peril, might be confusing Clinton's chances at winning the White House with her chances of winning the nomination. Those are two different things.